Ridgefield, Republican-dominated since the Civil War — where the GOP held a nearly two-to-one edge over Democrats a little over a decade ago — is now more unaffiliated than Republican. And the Democrats are gaining ground.
Republicans made up more than 44% of Ridgefield’s electorate, and Democrats just 24%, in 1999, when Democrat Rudy Marconi captured the first selectman’s office in what was widely regarded as an upset of Republican Abe Morelli, an incumbent finishing his first term. In this November’s election, Republicans made up 35% of Ridgefield voters, and Democrats had risen to nearly 28%. That’s a 9% decline in the Republican share of the electorate, and a 5% increase for Democrats over the 16 years Marconi has been in office.
In that period, unaffiliated voters increased from 32% in 1999 to 36% in 2015, a 4% jump that made them the biggest group among the town’s more than 16,000 voters.
That breakdown is based on the numbers of registered voters reported in The Ridgefield Press issue just before each year’s November election.
• From the Oct. 28, 1999, Ridgefield Press: 15,037 registered Ridgefield voters; Republicans, 6,676 (44.4%); unaffiliated, 4,799 (31.9%); Democrats, 3,499 (23.3)%; other (Green, Libertarian, etc.) 0.4%.
• From the Oct. 29, 2015, Ridgefield Press: 16,178 registered Ridgefield voters; unaffiliated, 5,855 (36.2%); Republicans, 5,722 (35.4%); Democrats, 4.463 (27.6%); other, 138 (0.8%).
Observers of the local political scene saw different things in the trend: a general disenchantment with party affiliation; an influx of New Yorkers; some afterglow of the excitement Barack Obama’s initial presidential campaign brought to the Democratic Party; the increasing conservatism of a Republican Party now dominated by the Sun Belt states.
“That has been a trend for quite a few years now,” First Selectman Rudy Marconi said. “I think Ridgefield reflects what’s going on nationally. The numbers of people that are shying away from either of the two major parties, and registering as unaffiliated.
“Although, I think the Democrats showed an increase during the first Obama term, that helps the percentage of them in Ridgefield — still, the greater is in the unaffiliateds.”
Regional changes
The change in town reflects similar evolution throughout Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District, statewide, and across New England, according to Dr. Gary Rose, chairman of Sacred Heart University’s Department of Government, Politics and Global Studies, and author of a book on the changing political demographics of Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District, which includes Ridgefield.
“So much of it starts in presidential politics, and what we’ve observed there,” he said. “And New England Republicans, which used to be a moderating force in the party — I think they’ve just seen this Republican Party moving in a direction that they cannot identify with any longer. Much of it has to do with civil rights, social issues in particular. …
“New England Republicans have long been a tolerant, moderating force within the Republican Party. Often they were referred to as Rockefeller Republicans, which was a very moderate brand of Republicanism, where they were financially conservative and socially moderate. But the fact of the matter is, the Republican Party is not moderate on much any more.”
Local Republicans offer a less ideological view.
“It’s a result of a lot of things,” said Republican Registrar of Voters Hope Wise. “We have a lot of new people coming in and out of town, and we have a great many people coming from downcounty Westchester, many of whom were registered as Democrats and are coming here but aren’t sure. The safe way to register is unaffiliated. A lot of people don’t choose to register to a party anymore.
“We do explain when they come in that Connecticut has a closed primary. We’ll see a lot of switches in the spring in order to vote in the primary,” said Wise. “They can only vote in a primary if they’re a member of the party and we’ll see some changes if there’s excitement for the primary.”
Both Republican and Democratic presidential primaries are scheduled for April 26 in Connecticut. Under state law, unaffiliated voters may join a party up to noon the day before and vote in a primary the next day.
Voters who are registered with a party and want to switch and vote in the other party’s primary have to switch affiliation at least three months before the primary, however. That puts the deadline for switching affiliation in advance of the presidential primary at Jan. 26, according to Democratic Registrar Cindy Bruno.
The registrars of voters office in town hall is open four days a week — Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday — from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
Long-term trend
Like the Democratic first selectman, Republican Town Committee Chairman Joe Savino saw the declining share of the electorate that registers with the GOP as part of a long-term general trend.
“It crossed over a while ago,” he said of unaffiliateds surpassing Republicans as the town’s largest voter group. “If you look at the 16,000 voters, the Republicans are about the same. Unaffiliateds are increasing, and Democrats are muddling along.
“It’s a trend you see in Ridgefield, and I checked with the other town committees in our area. It’s a trend. You have a lot more people registering as U’s than you used to,” Savino said.
“We’re seeing it in other towns and across the state. The percentages vary, but the trend is there.
“It’s a factor of where they’re moving from, and what their background is. They’re defaulting into the unaffiliated category, because they don’t like what they’re seeing from either side.”
What about Democratic registration increasing?
“It’s going up a little. The bigger trend, really, has been the unaffiliateds,” Savino said.
“It’s just the way people are choosing to register.
“You’ve first got to take a look at where the people moving into Ridgefield are coming from. You hear New Jersey, New York City, Westchester. They’re coming in, they’re from more Democratic places. The people that are basically moving out are the longtime Ridgefielders.
“I think it’s a fact of the demographics of the town — where people are moving from, as they’re coming into Ridgefield.”
The less party-oriented outlook carries over to voters’ judging of candidates, he thought.
“I think people look at them more independently now, as opposed to what party you’re a member of,” he said.
“If you look at two candidates who consistently draw very high numbers, Toni Boucher and John Frey, you have typical Connecticut Republicans — fiscally conservative and more socially moderate.”
He thinks younger people are less inclined to join political parties.
“A lot of the kids kind of set themselves as unaffiliateds,” he said.
“It’s just a general trend with everything right now: You’ve got to work harder if you’re a Republican.”
Savino said the Connecticut Republican Party was looking to adapt to the trend with some possible rule changes.
“State level, one of the things they’re considering is letting unaffiliateds vote in Republican primaries — for governor,” he said. “At the state level, the unaffiliateds are so big right now, we ought to let them be involved in picking the Republican candidate.”
Statewide registration
Statewide, voter registration figures, provided by Tina Prakash of the secretary of the state’s communications office, show that in the 16 years from 1999 to 2015, Republican registration fell about 3% statewide, from 24% in 1999 to 21% in 2015.
During that time Democratic registration went up close to 2%, from 35% in 1999 to near 37% in 2015, while the percentage of unaffiliated voters increased 1%, from 41% to 42%.
Here’s the breakdown:
Statewide voter registration as of Oct. 19,1999:
• Republican: 430,528 (24.3%)
• Democrat: 621,469 (35%)
• Other: 3,131 (.2%)
• Unaffiliated: 719,683 (40.5%)
Statewide voter registration as of Nov. 9, 2015:
• Republican: 400,490 (20.8%)
• Democrat: 704,190 (36.6%)
• Other: 20,615 (1.1%)
• Unaffiliated: 798,900 (41.5%)
Susan Cocco, chairwoman of Ridgefield’s Democratic Town Committee, viewed the changes in the context of both the state and Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District, which ranges from Greenwich, through Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Westport, and Fairfield to Bridgeport along the coast, and north to the inland towns of New Canaan, Ridgefield, Redding, Wilton, Weston, Easton, Shelton, and Monroe.
“The 4th Congressional District is really what would be considered a purple district,” she said. “The cities will be overwhelmingly Democratic. And the suburbs, which in the past were overwhelmingly Republican, may now lean Republican — there are some strongholds, New Canaan is clearly Republican.”
She agreed that the largest trend appears to be toward no affiliation.
“I speak with my colleagues in the Democratic Party who are town chairs, and it’s not uncommon for them to tell me the unaffiliated registration has exceeded both Democratic and Republican registration,” Cocco said.
“In many towns across the state of Connecticut, and particularly in the 4th District, the unaffiliateds represent the largest segment,” she said.
“Our trend in Ridgefield is beginning to reflect changing characteristics of the 4th Congressional District, which is getting more Democratic and unaffiliated leaning in its registration,” Cocco said.
Somewhat like Savino, the Republican chairman, she didn’t think party affiliation had an overwhelming effect on voters’ judgment of local candidates such as First Selectman Marconi.
“Locally, there are very few purely partisan issues — when you think about it — on a municipal level. And Rudy is an excellent example of good leadership in action, that is neither Democratic nor Republican — I think we all know that. So there’s actually less partisanship at the local level, the municipal level. Rudy’s a clear example of that.”
The Democratic chairwoman’s perspective on the changes put more emphasis on ideology and national parties’ stands on the issues.
“It also reflects the decimation of the GOP brand nationally,” she said. “All you have to do is look at the current GOP presidential primary, as well as the GOP’s dysfunction in Congress, and you have a snapshot of why registration in the Grand Old Party is on the decline.
“They have schisms nationally, which is affecting their brand and their party nationally, and the 4th Congressional District and town of Ridgefield are no exception to that rule.”
National numbers
National figures on party affiliation vary from poll to poll, according to Dr. Rose, the Sacred Heart professor of politics.
“It depends on what poll you look at,” he said.
“I told my students to be careful of figures, because they do vary. … It depends on how the question is phrased.”
A Pew Research Center study with figures from the end of 2014 has Democrats at 32%, Republicans at 23%, and unaffiliated voters or “independents” at 39% nationwide.
“The number of political independents has continued to grow, as both parties have lost ground among the public,” PEW Research says. “Independents now outnumber either Democrats or Republicans, with 39% of Americans choosing that label.”
In a Gallup poll done Nov. 4-8, 2015, 39% of respondents nationwide said they considered themselves independents, while 30% said they were Democrats and 28% said Republicans. If “leaners” and not just registered voters are included, Democrats have 44% and Republican 42%.
Rose said the differences were likely accounted for not by the different polling organization but by the population they sampled.
“Which sample?” he said. “Eligible voters? Voting age?”
In Connecticut’s 4th District, which Rose has studied closely, wealthy suburbs that repeatedly helped elect Republican Christopher Shays may still go for the GOP candidate, but the margins are less — opening the way for the repeated election of Democrat Jim Himes as the 4th District congressman.
“We used to think the Republicans will win the suburbs and smaller towns of the 4th and Democrats will win the cities. That’s how Shays was able to hold on to his seat.
“Now Jim Himes is also cutting into traditional Republican strongholds as well,” Rose said.
The old income-related patterns of party affiliation in the 4th District are less predictive of how suburban voters will affiliate — and cast their ballots.
“It’s really a demographic and political change that’s coming together and altering the political and social fabric of these communities,” Rose said.
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